Canmore real estate sales slow, but already lofty price expected to rise even more

Rows of houses in the Canadian Rockies of Canmore, Alberta, with spectacular view of Rundle Mountain in the background.

While real estate sales have softened in Canmore and price forecasts are down, already pricy housing costs will continue to become even less affordable this year, say realtors in the mountain town.

A forecast by Royal LePage suggests price increases for single detached homes in Canmore will rise 1.5 per cent in 2026, compared to 9.5 per cent in the first nine months of last year.

Some of that has to do with buyer uncertainty stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to annex Canada, said Brad Hawker, an associate broker with Royal LePage Solutions.

“The uncertainty of what our neighbours to the south have been doing, particularly in the six or seven months, has created some uneasiness for some buyers,” said Hawker.

“The ridiculousness coming out of the U.S. just seems to magnify week by week, day by day.”

The number of inquiries from prospective American buyers about Canmore has increased, he said, possibly looking forward to when a three-year-old federal ban on foreign real estate purchases ends in a year.

“They’re saying ‘get me out of here (the U.S.),'” said Hawker.

But other Canadian buyers are less fazed by the U.S. turbulence, seeing security in a place like Canmore, he said, which will likely be enough to propel sales that have propelled the median price for a single detached home to $1,861,000.

Hawker said the more modest price growth forecast is skewed by a slowdown in the sale of higher-end properties in the $2-million to $4-million bracket, so it shouldn’t be construed as a sign housing costs are about to plateau.

“There’ll be more homes sold in the more affordable end . . . it’s not going to bring prices down,” he said.

Most of the Canmore buyers hail from the larger Alberta cities, though some interest is coming from Manitoba and Saskatchewan residents, he said.

Canmore livability tax ‘more of a rounding error’ for homeowners, says associate broker

Meanwhile, the town’s livability tax, passed in 2024 by town council and which took effect Jan. 1, hits owners or renters who live in the town fewer than 183 days a year — 60 of those continuously.

The levy — which would bump up the annual average municipal tax payment in the town from $2,100 to $6,300 — would encourage more full-time residency in Canmore while raising $10.5 million a year that would be invested in the building of affordable housing, say proponents.

But earlier this month, the Canmore town council chose to move toward limiting the tax to out-of-province homeowners .

Even so, the group Fair Future Canmore opposes any notion of such a tax and is appealing an April 2025 court ruling upholding the levy.

Hawker said the tax hasn’t had much impact on buyer or seller intentions, with homeowners seeing the increased taxes as “more of a rounding error.”

Other Canmore realtors like Dan Sparks echoed that, saying it’s been a non-issue.

“I haven’t seen a single person sell or say they weren’t going to buy because of it,” said Sparks.

The realtor said even though sales may be softer, he doesn’t believe housing prices in Canmore will stall, adding, “Every time someone comes up with a ceiling, we just blow through it.”

He said the most affordable single detached home in the town is a house on his street — a modest 1980s structure priced at about $1.2 million.

Canmore inexpensive compared to other locations, says realtor

But compared to other mountain resort destinations like Whistler, B.C. or Aspen and Vail, Colo., Canmore is inexpensive and it’s that relative appeal that’s still drawing the interest of possible buyers from the Greater Toronto Area, said Sparks.

“The GTA factor can’t be denied — people there think it’s very reasonably priced compared to Collingwood (Ont.),” he said.

Buyer interest in Canmore could spike again, said Sparks, once the federal foreign buyer ban is lifted in a year.

Canmore realtor Jonas Gordon said he’s seeing a continued increase in demand for vacation rental properties there, “and there’s a lot of inventory coming onto that market.”

While the town’s real estate market may not be supporting as many multiple offer situations as in previous years, he said there’s still buoyancy in it.

“We’re still in low inventory levels, we’re still seeing demand,” said Gordon, of MaxWell Capital Realty.

BKaufmann@postmedia.com

X: @BillKaufmannjrn